Thursday, February 4, 2010

Pokharan test II - Its significance in India's modern history

Pokharan test in 1998 in many ways was a landmark incident in modern Indian history. It was the first time when India openly shrugged off her nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament stance against the powerful international lobby despite the numerous sanction threats.

Since the end of World War II, world was inequitably divided into two groups: one with nuclear power and the other without it. 98 percent of the countries of the world fall into the later with only USA, UK, France, Soviet Union and China being the privileged ones. Just after the aftermath of WW2, a Non Proliferation Treaty for Nuclear weapons was conceptualized among the nations winning the war. The treaty said that only four of the nations namely, the USA, the UK, the Soviet Union and France were authorized to produce and maintain their nuclear artilleries. Any other country if found to work with this technology will be dealt with firm hands and will have to face consequences in the form of political and economical ostracisms and even with military incursions. China being a major power at the time of formation of treaty was treated as an exception and thus it too became a part of the Big four. And thus a BIG five was formed which for the next four decades maintained its hegemony over the world till India became the first country to challenge that, which we will come in subsequent passages.

Subsequently, Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was created to endorse the earlier one, the NPT, specifying ways in which the sanctions would be applied to the violating countries. Most of the nations in the world were forced to endorse both the treaties with a few exceptions like India, Pakistan, Israel, Iran etc.

Since independence, India has followed a policy of non-alignment, which helped India maintain an equal distance from two major blocks developing after the WW2, namely the capitalist block with USA as its head and the communist block with USSR as its lead. India knew that endorsing any of the treaty like CTBT or NPT will eventually come in the way of maintaining an independent foreign policy. Also, India after independence was surrounded by nations which were not exactly friends with her. Pakistan in collusion with China and USA always used to threaten and transgress the Indian borders as were in 1948, 1965, 1971 and later on in 1999. In 1971, after its creation, Bangladesh also joined the chorus along with Pakistan. China in 1962 war also made clear its intentions of animosity. So, with these insurmountable problems India's harmonious existence has always been in danger.

In the wake of these threats, Congress government with Indira Gandhi as its head conducted the subdued first test in Pokharan. Subdued, because India was not a big power then to face international sanctions from all corners and to jeopardize its growth. India was still a country which needed much international support and aid for its existence. It has not become self dependent. Fifteen years later BJP government came into power overcoming much of the political turmoil with AB Vajpayee becoming Prime Minister of India the third time in three years. Due to some political pressure and due to some existential pressure, the BJP government in order to show India's mettle to the world and hence the government's mettle to its people conducted the TEST in 1999, which in many ways established India as an important player in the world politics.

India successfully conducted three nuclear tests in Pokharan under the able guidance of our former President Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, then the chief of nuclear operations. International community reacted sharply with USA, UN and other nations imposing several kinds of bans and sanctions on India. India was banned from participating in most of the international economic forums and several countries cut on the imports from India. Japan, Canada, etc suspended providing aid to India. USA however did not succeed in getting G-8 countries taking collective action against India. Germany, France and Russia continued their economic ties with India. With passage of time, several other countries let go their hard stance over India.

Pokharan II marks an important chapter in the history of India as a evolving democratic, independent nation. Although, India did a diplomatic blunder by openly admitting to the world about the tests, it in many ways helped India gain a prominent position among the powerful nations. India became only the sixth nation in the world to openly admit to have the capacity of producing nuclear technology and hence the weapons on its own. In the hindsight, the tests look like an eventuality which was bound to happen to challenge the old world order and form a new world order with new evolving paradigms. As described by UN General Secretary Mr Kofi Annan - "We can not have two parameters for evaluating different nations. At one hand CTBT allows the exclusive club to maintain and produce nuclear weapons and at other hand it restricts other countries (India and Pakistan) not to have them".

9 comments:

  1. I want to state the following points:
    We are a very unique country because we have 2 nuclear weapon states as our enemies. China is a superpower too and has attacked us once. we lost that war. Pakistan has fought 3 wars against us and we luckily won all three.

    Therefore, we live in a very hostile neighbor hood and this hostile neighborhood is there to stay.

    So after the wars in 1947, 1962, 1965 and 1971 we decided that enough was enough and tested our first nuclear weapon in 1974. We began the process in 1974 and took it to kind of logical conclusion in 1998.

    I believe that the test in 1974 was meant to state the fact that we will not hesitate to cause catastrophic damage to anybody who dares to attack us.It is important to realise that we were not attacked again till 1999. But it is important to note that Kargil was a low intensity conflict and not a war.

    So, Having nuclear weapons gives us the capability to cause devastating damage to our enemies and thus stops them from attacking us.The nuclear weapons are our most basic means of defense. Having them is a guarantee against attacks on our country by Pakistan. China is unlikely to attack us directly and has used Pakistan as its proxy for a long time now.

    But, we need to maintain nuclear parity with China too. This is important because we have border issues with China and not having nuclear parity with them will hurt our negotiations.

    Therefore, though 1998 blasts took care of Pakistan, we need to develop our arsenal to maintain parity with China.

    Once we have enough deterrence against China, we can go ahead and ratify CTBT. Because our next line of defense will have to be our economic prowess.

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  2. Good post Sanjay. Keep posting and I will keep commenting.

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  3. Quite right to say that we need a parity in nuclear power when dealing with nations like China. One can imagine what would have happened in the current global scenario with Tibet and Arunachal conflict looming all over us, if we were not a nuclear power.

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  4. A point to understand (infer) here is that the first nuclear test was merely a decoy supplied by a friendly nation to india to supposedly make some point in international politics that i cannot comment due to sheer lack of knowledge.

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    However, India took more than 20 years to test the next nuclear test, this time most probably a lot of capabilities being developed inhouse and so the international backlash is accepted as a natural reaction of a powerful boy whose authority has just been questioned.

    I would like to leave with one more interesting thought to dwell on. Has India, pakistan and N.korea have suddenly become intelligent to create nuclear bombs or there are some ulterior motives behind.

    1) Strained relattions beteween US and china could have been foreseen and this may have been a deliberate attempt to militarize china's neighbour to contain its influence in Asia. However, recent dramatic rise could not have foreseen.

    2) I still have a strong feeling that current situation in Pakistan could either be a US thing of containing china or chinese thing of containing Asia against the orders by US.

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  5. Rachit,

    If we assume that the nuclear knowhow was provided by USA then it would have occurred between the period of 80-95(3 yrs till 98 taken to actually decide to test). But this is highly unlikely as at that time the cold war had just ended and USA just did not trust us at all. They would not gamble with providing nuclear knowhow to a country which was in the Russian camp for 50 years.Also, our country was politically unstable at that time:
    consider,
    84---> a serving PM assassinated,
    84-87---> Anti Sikh riots and Sikh separatist movement
    89---> beginning of insurgency in Kashmir
    91---> a PM candidate assassinated,
    91-92---> Babri Masjid and Mumbai riots
    96-98 ---->3 governments in 2 years

    It is very unlikely that somebody would supply nukes to such an unstable country.(We have found a semblance of stability only recently because of our economic progress)
    So, if it is unlikely that US provided us with nukes then it leaves the Russia option open.
    But then why would anybody provide us with the technology to carry out THERMONUCLEAR BLASTS. They could have just given us some other low level nuclear technology and it would have served their purpose at least to some extent.

    Remember that in 1998, India carried out Thermonuclear blasts. Also, 11 years later, the success was disputed by one of our own scientists. Also note the timing of the blast. It was clearly a political move by the new PM to show his and his party's mettle and capture the attention of our country's people and and international community.
    So, my theory is that we always knew that we have real bad guys as our neighbors and so we always wanted to have nukes.Hence the test in 1974. The US did its best to create all possible obstacles. Hence the 25 years delay. And, then the political compulsions of the new government to utilize a still imperfect technology to carry out tests, which as it turns out were not completely successful.

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  6. Quite informative. I will have to get back to reading mode before I comment.;)

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  7. Hi Sanjay,
    Nice Article. Well I don't have anything to comment on the technical detail of the article, but a general comment from me:

    Nuclear Tech Ab Humare Delhi mein hai,
    Dekhna hai zor kitna baajue Kaatil mein hai.

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  8. Quite an insightful article on the Nuclear policy pursued by India. However the article left untouched the much talked about Nuclear deal, mentioning which would have been crucial.

    To start with, Pokharan was the turning point, crafting a new chapter in India's history, Not acceding to the Kow Tow strategy followed by other developing countries, India maintained its own stance.

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  9. Did India even conduct a nuclear test in 1998 ? The vibrations could not be felt by any of the seismic receptors placed by the International community ! It makes me wonder, If tests at all occurred, that tests were of weak standards and hence the Bombs are really not good ones.The only purpose the tests served was to create an element of fear and suspicion to the neighbours.

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